If You See This Happen In The Middle East, You Need To Take Action Quickly…

Well , we’ve entered unknown territory and you really need to keep an eye on two potential events that I’m going to share with you below…

As of today, 23 oil and gas facilities have been attacked by Iran across 9 countries in the the Middle East.

These attacks have taken 8% of the world’s global oil supply, and 20% of its natural gas supply offline…

And over the past four days, Ukraine has damaged two of Russia’s biggest export facilities…

Ust-Luga which handles 700,000 barrels/day and the Primorsk Port which is one of Russia’s largest export outlets at 1M barrels per day…

This level of energy disruption is unprecedented. It’s never happened before… Not even in WW2.

As a result, we’ve seen significantly higher prices here in the US so far…

But In Other Countries, A Full-Blown Crisis Is Underway That You Probably Aren’t Even Aware Of…

India is the world's 3rd-largest oil importer. They get 90% of their crude and 60% of their natural gas from the Strait of Hormuz…

Supplies have tightened dramatically, sparking widespread panic buying, fuel rationing fears and chaos in the streets…

Last week, Australia was reporting that more than 18% of all gas stations in the country have run out of fuel… (!)

In Taiwan, TSMC, (the largest microchip producer in the world), is reported to have around 7 days left of helium supply for their manufacturing process…

Helium is irreplaceable in semiconductor fabrication (especially advanced 3nm chips and below that TSMC dominates).

Well 33% of the global helium supply comes from a refinery in Qatar which is now off-line after being attacked by Iran.

We have been largely insulated from this dynamic so far in the US because we are net-exporters of oil and gas to the rest of the world… We’ve got a significant domestic supply…

But Here’s What Most People Don’t Realize…

The world depends on these energy inputs like a diver depends on oxygen…

If things continue to escalate in the Middle East… If Iran attacks desalination plants or additional oil refineries, this whole thing could kick start a world-wide domino effect that will be worse than the Great Depression…

Here’s why…

In the 1930’s we didn’t have microchips and all of our food was grown locally…

Today, everything we consume is dependent upon global supply chains… Including the crops we eat, and the crops our chickens and cattle eat… 

Natural gas is the main ingredient required to produce ammonia and urea… And ammonia and urea are critical for fertilizer production.

Urea prices have jumped 30 to 45 percent, hitting farmers in the US, Europe, India, Brazil, and Africa right as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins…

Fertilizer shortages, soaring fuel and energy costs for farming and processing, plus higher freight expenses are setting the world up for major food-price shocks…

And This Problem Can’t Be Solved Quickly… 

These production and refinement facilities will take at least 3-5 years to bring back online in peaceful times…

So we’re literally in the opening month of a crisis that’s just getting started, and that will take years to resolve even if the war ended today…

Right now many countries in the world are in a full-blown panic while life in the US is largely unchanged in the US outside of higher fuel prices…

There’s Two Critical Things You Need To Look Out For…

First, is that the big initial drop in supply after the attacks in Iran is about to start hitting markets in the next 1-2 weeks… Ships that left ports before the attacks are reaching their destinations now… But when the ships stopped, that created a supply gap that’s about to hit soon as seen below…

Here’s a quick summary of the timeline… Oil imports are expected to hit a major supply gap that could last weeks or months…

• Asia and East Africa: April 1st.

• Europe: April 10th

• United States: April 15th

• Australia: April 20th.

In other words, expect oil prices to spike around the world in April, which will likely have a significant and negative effect on global stock markets.

Next, Keep An Eye On The Middle East And Russia…

If any additional oil refineries or distribution pipelines are hit like those coming out of Qatar and Saudi Arabia below…

Or if Kharag island gets attacked…

The world will fall into a level of crisis that we have never seen or experienced…

We won’t feel it here immediately in the United States because we are the most insulated country in the world from this crisis thanks to our domestic production…

But that level of comfort could change quickly…

Last week on March 23rd, the Valero oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas exploded…

Preliminary reports point to a possible malfunction in an industrial heater in the diesel hydrotreater unit, but that’s exactly the kind of thing that a cyber-attack can cause.

If These Critical Supply Lines And Refineries Continue To Go Offline…

Stock markets around the world would immediately crash, oil and gas prices will sky rocket, and a massive humanitarian crisis will ignite in countries around the world that depend on these oil imports to function… (These imports are their oxygen).

The top 10 countries that NEED these imports include…

1. Taiwan: 100% (95% of all microchips are produced here).

2. Singapore: 100%

3. Japan: 95%+

4. South Korea: 95%+

5. Germany: 95%+

6. Turkey: 90%+

7. Phillipines: 90%+

8. India: 90%+

9. Thailand: 80-90%

10. China: 70%+

And all of this will quickly escalate into significant disruptions in the global food supply in the years ahead that will absolutely hit the US… The kind of disruptions that were seen during the Great Depression…

And Finally Expect US Troop Deployments In Iran In The Coming 2 Weeks…

Two Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne have arrived in the area through the UAE. Estimated numbers staged in the region range from 20,000 to 50,000.

It’s expected that these troops will be used to secure Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb islands in order to take control of the Straight of Hormuz and get oil tankers moving again...

But if you see troops land on Kharag Island, prepare for the end of the world as we know it.

Kharag island is where 90% of all oil imports flow out of for the region. If US troops land on that island to secure it, it will become an instant target for Iranian drones. When damaged, the facility will go offline for years, and that represents a worst case scenario for the world.

I’m Not Sending This To Scare You…

I’m sending it because 99% of Americans are in a bubble just going about their lives as usual…

They have no idea what’s happening right now outside of the US because of the oil crisis, and they certainly have no idea what’s going to hit all of us like a freight train if it continues to get worse…

So here’s the short take-aways…

• As oil prices continue to rise, stocks will continue to crash.

• As markets crash, unemployment will increase.

• The cost of necessities like food will increase.

• Protests will fill the streets (we’re starting to see this now), and large scale terrorist attacks should be assumed as Iran, China, Russia, and its proxies use this opportunity to attack the Trump administration in a period of weakness.

• The more infrastructure Iran can attack in the Middle East, the more that incentivizes the US to backoff. The more chaos they cause, the more power they retain, and the more power the US loses.

If you see additional supply lines and refineries go offline in the weeks or months ahead, it would be smart to have bulk food supplies on hand…

This crisis will hit the supply chains slowly at first here in the US… 

And then significant risks to food security in 1-2 years if global fertilizer supplies run dry this year.

That time isn’t here just yet (and hopefully it will never come), but the world is on the fence right now…

We’ve never had a globalized distribution system that the entire world depended on…

And we’ve never had that system literally run out of fuel.

We are in unprecedented territory and in a situation that is far more fragile than what we experienced in the Great Depression when cities, towns, and farms were not dependent on real-time global distribution for food and fuel like we are today.

I’lll keep you posted when meaningful updates are needed…

Sincerely,

Mike Dillard ✞
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