Jeff Bezos Is Lying About AI, (And I Have The Numbers To Prove It…)
The question everyone's quietly asking themselves right now is whether AI is going to take their job, or make them rich...
Well Jeff Bezos shared an optimistic perspective last week that I haven’t been able to stop thinking about…
Jeff was standing outside the Blue Origin launch site in Florida doing an interview with CNBC when someone asked him about the AI job-loss panic sweeping the country…
He brushed it off with one of the more memorable lines I've heard on the subject...
"If you've been digging out a basement for your house with a shovel and somebody's about to hand you a bulldozer, you would be so happy."
And honestly? He's right...
On a macro level, Jeff genuinely believes AI will flood the economy with so much productivity that everything gets cheaper... groceries, housing, energy...
The person with the bulldozer will get ten times more done with a fraction of the effort…
And it really made me re-think my take on AI’s impact on people’s jobs…
Am I being too pessimistic?
So I Started Digging Deeper, And Here's What He Didn't Mention...
Jeff runs the largest robot deployment in human history...
Right now, Amazon has over 1 million robots working across its global warehouse network, nearly matching its entire human workforce of 1.5 million people...
Here’s the real impact of that on the business, and their employees…
In 2016, Amazon had 341,400 employees...
By 2021, that number had exploded to 1.608 million... The single largest workforce expansion in the history of modern business...
And then the robots arrived at scale...
By 2025, Amazon's headcount had actually fallen to 1.576 million, which is 32,000 fewer employees than the 2021 peak, even as revenue and package volume kept climbing...
For example, in that same period, the number of packages processed per worker went from 175 per day, to 3,870...
That's a 22x jump in output per person, with a net loss in headcount...
And that’s the trend that’s really important…
Jeff’s Bezos Is Lying…
In a pre-robot world, Amazon would need somewhere between 8 and 10 million workers to move the same amount of packages...
But they only have 1.56 million because the robots absorbed the rest...
Their hiring has essentially come to a halt in the past few years, and now the trend is going to start to reverse in the years ahead as humanoid robots start to hit factory floors…
According to internal documents that made their way to the New York Times, Amazon's automation roadmap could let them avoid hiring more than 160,000 people in the U.S. by 2027 alone...
How This Affects You…
So Jeff isn't lying about the fact that the AI productivity gains are real and massive...
But his optimistic take that all boats will rise on the rise of the AI tidal wave isn’t true…
The value will flow to whoever owns the AI workforce that’s replacing the human workforce.
And that goes for the small business owners like you and I…
If we increase our productivity and output with the help of AI, we’ll win…
But if we don’t, we’ll lose…
So I Continue To Stand By The Prediction I Made Over Two Years Ago…
Society is going to fracture into three classes…
1: The Owners: The vast majority of the value that AI and robots disrupt won’t be destroyed, it will simply flow up to the people who own the AI and robotic companies… in other words, the people who own a meaningful amount of stock in companies like Tesla, NVidia, Google, Amazon, and Anthropic.
This is the group you want to be in.
2: The Adaptors: If you are willing to dive into AI and learn how to create value using these tools, you’re an Adaptor, and you’re crush it over the next few years. Right now, single individuals are literally using Ai from home to create multi-million dollar… And even billion dollar businesses for next to zero costs.
You and I know how have access to the greatest source of intelligence in history for as little as $30/Mo, and you can use this insane new ability to create new products, and solve existing problems at an unprecedented level. This is who Jeff is referring to in his optimistic outlook…
3: The Techno-Serfs: But the people who don’t adopt, will ultimately be replaced, and Amazon’s own hiring numbers are starting to confirm this trend…
If you work at Amazon in a role that doesn’t directly support the adoption of AI and robotics at Amazon, (or any business), you are going to be replaced by them.
Mo Gawdat, (the former Chief Business Officer of Google X), put it this way in a recent interview...
He said we're already seeing a quiet hiring freeze on entry-level white collar jobs right now. Companies aren't laying people off in dramatic waves, they're just not replacing people when they leave...
And that's how the bottom rung of the corporate ladder disappears without making headlines...
His number is 30% of jobs in certain sectors gone by 2027 and 2028...
Now, I don't know if that's exactly right. But the direction is obvious, and anyone telling you otherwise is selling something...
So How Do You Win?
You invest in the AI companies doing the disruption… Tesla, Google, Amazon, Anthropic, etc…
And you start learning how to apply AI in your life right now to increase your value to your employer, or create your own business.
If you are too lazy or intimidated to do that, then the consequences are on you my friend. I don’t enjoy saying that, but it’s the truth…
And I want you to win.
How did you like today's email?
Sincerely,
Mike Dillard ✞
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